NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Best March Madness upset picks: Our predictions for NCAA tournament first-round stunners

The NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Centerword upset gets bandied about a lot in sports contexts. But what actually constitutes an upset isn’t always cut and dried. Sometimes it’s a matter of whom the books identify as the favorite, but often it’s simply a matter of perception.

But as far as March Madness and the NCAA men's tournament is concerned, the NCAA record book provides its own definition of an upset on the basis of tournament seeding. For our purposes here then, we’ll use that guideline and say that an upset is a win by a team seeded five places or more below its opponent. In the round of 64, ergo, all the 7-10 and 8-9 games are essentially considered toss-ups.

So our aim here is to attempt to identify the true first-round upset candidates in the men’s tourney field seeded 11th or lower. There are usually a few, but finding the right ones isn’t always easy. (Full disclosure: we went 0-for-5 in this space last year – but we press on.) Here are five upset candidates to consider as you fill out your bracket.

No. 13 Samford defeats No. 4 Kansas

If you were watching the selection show on Sunday when Samford’s name appeared on the bracket and wondered what the heck the announcers meant by ‘Bucky Ball,’ they were referring to Bulldogs coach Bucky McMillan. Hired by Samford in 2020 after a successful high school coaching career in his home state of Alabama, he has the Bulldogs in the Big Dance for the first time since 2000, and they might just be in a position to stick around a while.

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For one thing, the Bulldogs have depth, something the Jayhawks don’t have in abundance even when fully healthy. Ten Samford players average double-digit minutes, which allows the Bulldogs to play at a high speed. As a result, Samford averages 86 points a game, good for fifth in the country. They’ll present a tough challenge for Kansas, which will at least be rested after its early exit from the Big 12 tournament but might still not have Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar at 100%.

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No. 12 James Madison defeats No. 5 Wisconsin

After opening the campaign with a surprising win at Michigan State and making a brief appearance in the Top 25 this season, the Dukes look to add another chapter by advancing at the expense of another Big Ten squad. Sun Belt player of the year Terrence Edwards (17.4 ppg) is JMU’s go-to guy, but the Dukes have other options as well. The Badgers for their part have regained their early form after a miserable month of February when they lost six of eight, but they’ve come up short in enough close games to have their fans concerned about this difficult opener.

No. 11 New Mexico defeats No. 6 Clemson

Even with an impressive NET score and a run to the conference title game, the Lobos absolutely needed to claim the Mountain West’s automatic bid to join their five conference mates in the field. Now that they’re here and on a roll, they’ll be a dangerous matchup for the Tigers, who have been maddeningly inconsistent all season and have gone 1-3 since the calendar turned to March. Clemson will need to find a solution to stopping New Mexico's backcourt of Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. to avoid going home early.

No. 11 North Carolina State defeats No. 6 Texas Tech

Why stop now if you’re the Wolfpack? Their improbable run through the ACC tournament coincidentally landed them on the same seed line where they found themselves a year ago. But this time they have momentum on their side, and the match-up with an athletic but streaky Red Raiders’ team could be more to their liking.

No. 13 College of Charleston defeats No. 4 Alabama

We had the Cougars on our radar a year ago as well. In our defense, they gave eventual finalist San Diego State quite a battle in the round of 64 before coming up six points short. Pat Kelsey had to replace a lot of parts from last year’s squad but got Charleston back to the Dance, earning CAA coach of the year honors in the process. The most notable addition is do-everything forward Ante Brzovic, but mainly it’s the Cougars’ scrappy defensive approach that makes them a threat to the high-octane Crimson Tide.